AAA projects 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1. This year’s domestic travel forecast includes an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record. Locally, AAA projects 3.6 million New Englanders will travel this holiday, an increase of 2.1% over 2024. Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel compared to others like Memorial Day and July 4.
“Thanksgiving travel numbers are always impressive because this holiday has become synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” said Dan Goodman, manager of public affairs and traffic safety of AAA Northern England. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories, whether it’s visiting extended family or meeting up with friends.”
New England Travel Forecast
- Automobiles: 3.2 million will travel by automobile, an increase of 2 percent.
- Planes: Holiday air travel is expected to increase 2.8percent to 408,000 leisure travelers.
- Trains, Buses, Rails and Cruise Ships: Travel across these sectors will increase by 4 percent to 60,000 passengers.
Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode of Transportation
By Car: AAA projects at least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving. That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations.
For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Wednesday is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper this Thanksgiving compared to last year.
At the pump, drivers are paying about the same as last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.06 on Thanksgiving Day. Filling the tank is a good idea the night before a road trip since it’s one less thing to do on travel day. AAA also recommends checking your battery and tire pressure. Last Thanksgiving holiday period, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside assistance calls to help stranded drivers with issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks.
As drivers prepare to get behind the wheel, AAA and MADD remind travelers about the dangers of impaired driving. This time of year can be particularly deadly on the roads. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, from 2019 to 2023, the death toll in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving festivities was 868, representing more than one-third (35%) of all fatalities in traffic crashes during that holiday period. Have a plan in place before Thanksgiving, and use a rideshare, designate a sober driver, or take public transit to ensure everyone’s safety.
By Air: According to AAA, 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period, a 2% increase compared to 2024. That figure could end up being slightly lower as some air travelers make other plans following recent flight cancellations. The number of Thanksgiving air travelers over the past several years - with the exception of 2020 - has been between 5 and 6 million.
According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Thanksgiving trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700 which is similar to last year. It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days.
By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to increase by 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million people. Those travelers are taking trips by bus, train, and cruise. Buses and trains could see an uptick in last-minute bookings this year.
Cruising is building on its record post-pandemic growth. This year alone, AAA is projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers. That number is even higher for 2026 with AAA forecasting 21.7 million U.S. travelers taking ocean cruises. Cruise vacations are appealing during Thanksgiving, especially to the Caribbean, because the weather is mild, the trip is paid in advance, and families can bring grandparents and kids, and everyone is entertained.
AAA’s Thanksgiving Top Destinations
The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Thanksgiving travel period. Florida is the most popular domestic destination, thanks to the area’s theme parks and cruise ports. The international list is a mix of Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia for its warm spring weather this time of year.
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DOMESTIC |
INTERNATIONAL |
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ORLANDO, FL |
PARIS, FRANCE |
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FORT LAUDERDALE, FL |
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS |
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MIAMI, FL |
VIENNA, AUSTRIA |
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ANAHEIM/LOS ANGELES, CA |
CANCUN, MEXICO |
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TAMPA, FL |
PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC |
|
NEW YORK, NY |
BASEL, SWITZERLAND |
|
SAN FRANCISCO, CA |
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA |
|
HONOLULU, HI |
BARCELONA, SPAIN |
|
LAS VEGAS, NV |
BUDAPEST, HUNGARY |
|
ATLANTA, GA |
ORANJESTAD, ARUBA |
Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon to be the most congested periods before Thanksgiving Day. Travelers returning home on Sunday should expect heavy traffic most of the day. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst backups, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders and other stopped vehicles on the side of the road to ensure everyone’s safety.
Please note the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.
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Best and Worst Times to Drive |
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Date |
Worst Travel Time |
Best Travel Time |
|
||||
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Tuesday, Nov 25 |
12:00 PM - 9:00 PM |
Before 12:00 PM |
|
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Wednesday, Nov 26 |
11:00 AM - 8:00 PM |
Before 11:00 AM |
|
||||
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Thursday, Nov 27 |
Minimal Traffic Impact Expected |
|
|
||||
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Friday, Nov 28 |
1:00 PM - 7:00 PM |
Before 11:00 AM |
|
||||
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Saturday, Nov 29 |
1:00 PM - 8:00 PM |
Before 10:00 AM |
|
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Sunday, Nov 30 |
11:00 AM - 8:00 PM |
Before 11:00 AM |
|
||||
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Monday, Dec 1 |
12:00 PM - 8:00 PM |
After 8:00 PM |
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Peak Congestion by Metro |
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Metro |
Route |
Peak Congestion Period |
Est. Travel Time |
Increase Compared to Typical |
|||
|
Atlanta |
Atlanta to Savannah via I-16 E |
Sunday 3:30 PM |
5 hour 16 minutes |
53% |
|||
|
Boston |
Boston to Hyannis via Pilgrims Hwy S |
Thursday 11:45 AM |
2 hour 0 minutes |
108% |
|||
|
Chicago |
Indianapolis to Chicago via I-65 N |
Sunday 3:45 PM |
4 hour 8 minutes |
57% |
|||
|
Denver |
Pueblo to Denver via I-25 N |
Tuesday 5:30 PM |
2 hour 60 minutes |
64% |
|||
|
Detroit |
Kalamazoo to Detroit via I-94 E |
Tuesday 4:30 PM |
2 hour 54 minutes |
48% |
|||
|
Houston |
Galveston to Houston via I-45 N |
Tuesday 5:30 PM |
1 hour 15 minutes |
47% |
|||
|
Los Angeles |
Los Angeles to Bakersfield via I-5 N |
Wednesday 7:45 PM |
4 hour 10 minutes |
147% |
|||
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Minneapolis |
Eau Claire to Minneapolis via I-94 W |
Sunday 4:45 PM |
1 hour 49 minutes |
53% |
|||
|
New York |
New York to Hamptons via Long Island Expy E |
Tuesday 4:30 PM |
4 hour 8 minutes |
163% |
|||
|
Philadelphia |
Philadelphia to Baltimore/DC via I-95 S |
Sunday 2:15 PM |
2 hour 38 minutes |
85% |
|||
|
Portland |
Portland to Eugene via I-5 S |
Friday 4:00 PM |
2 hour 43 minutes |
61% |
|||
|
San Diego |
San Diego to Palm Springs via I-15 N |
Wednesday 5:00 PM |
4 hour 49 minutes |
79% |
|||
|
San Francisco |
San Francisco to Santa Rosa via US-101 N |
Tuesday 7:15 PM |
2 hour 34 minutes |
114% |
|||
|
Seattle |
Seattle to Bellingham via I-5 N |
Tuesday 6:45 PM |
3 hour 22 minutes |
77% |
|||
|
Tampa |
Tampa to Orlando via I-4 E |
Friday 2:45 PM |
2 hour 52 minutes |
85% |
|||
|
Washington, DC |
Washington, DC to Baltimore via Balt/Wash Pkwy N |
Tuesday 4:30 PM |
1 hour 50 minutes |
166% |
|||
SOURCE: INRIX
Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 20, 2025.
Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
INRIX Methodology
INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.
Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1, 2025. This Thanksgiving travel window was instituted starting in 2024. Historical results were calculated dating back to 2019 using the same seven-day period.
About AAA
Founded in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts advocating for better roads and safer mobility, AAA has grown into one of North America’s largest and most trusted membership organizations. Guided by our mission to Save Lives, Create Member Value, and Deliver Exceptional Experiences, AAA provides world-class roadside assistance, travel planning, exclusive discounts, and reliable financial and insurance services. Today, AAA enhances the life journey of more than 65 million members across North America, including over 58 million in the United States. Learn more or become a member at AAA.com.
About S&P Global Market Intelligence
At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction. S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit spglobal.com/marketintelligence.
About MMGY
MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.